![]() Wolves that re-established within their previous distribution range in Eastern Germany and Western Poland originated from the Baltic population in northeastern Poland (Czarnomska et al., 2013 Nowak & Mysłajek, 2016). Wolves expanded their permanent range in the Italian and Iberian peninsulas (except for Southern Spain and Portugal López-Bao et al., 2018) and recolonized France, Switzerland and Scandinavia (Boitani & Linnell, 2015 Hindrikson et al., 2017). In Europe, large carnivore species recolonized former range starting from source populations living in remote and mountainous regions (Linnell et al., 2010 Swenson et al., 1995), and also thanks to specific reintroduction and translocation programs for lynx and bears (Breitenmoser et al., 1998 Samojlik et al., 2018 Zedrosser et al., 2001). In recent times, there have been records of wolf presence in all EU member states (excluding islands), and nearly all mainland states have at least one permanent and reproducing species of large carnivore (Chapron et al., 2014 Fernandéz-Gil et al., 2018). However, over the last few decades, most populations of Eurasian lynx ( Lynx lynx), brown bear ( Ursus arctos) and grey wolf ( Canis lupus) have increased in Europe, returning to areas where they were previously locally extinct. This suggests that large carnivores’ co-existence with humans in European landscapes is not limited by habitat availability, but other factors such as favourable human tolerance and policy.ĭuring the nineteenth and mid-twentieth centuries, large carnivores in Europe saw their numbers and distribution decline sharply, mainly due to human persecution, habitat loss and fragmentation (Chapron et al., 2014 Linnell et al., 2009). While projected changes largely match the observed recovery of large carnivore populations, we found mismatches with the recent expansion of wolves in Central and Southern Europe, where factors not included in our models may have played a dominant role. Recent land cover and human population changes appear to have altered the habitat suitability pattern for large carnivores in Europe, whereas protection level did not play a role. These trends were primarily associated with increases in forest cover and decreases in human population density, and, additionally, with decreases in the cover of mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation. Resultsīetween 19, the habitat suitability for the three species increased in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, North-West Iberian Peninsula and Northern Scandinavia, but showed mixed trends in Western and Southern Europe. Within the temporal window considered, we then predicted changes in habitat suitability for large carnivores throughout Europe. #SWEDEN ON MAP POPULATON DISPERSIO SERIES#We fitted multi-temporal species distribution models using >50,000 occurrence points with time series of land cover, landscape configuration, protected areas, hunting regulations and human population density covering a 24-year period (1992–2015). We investigated whether land cover and human population density changes are related to the relative probability of occurrence of three European large carnivores: the grey wolf ( Canis lupus), the Eurasian lynx ( Lynx lynx) and the brown bear ( Ursus arctos). The recent recovery of large carnivores in Europe has been explained as resulting from a decrease in human persecution driven by widespread rural land abandonment, paralleled by forest cover increase and the consequent increase in availability of shelter and prey. ![]()
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